Apple's Foldable iPhone: A $2,500 Gamble on Under-Screen Cameras?

The whispers surrounding Apple's foldable iPhone have been persistent, but the latest leak—a JP Morgan equity research report viewed by MacRumors—suggests Apple isn't just bending glass; they're potentially bending the curve of camera technology. The report claims the foldable will sport a 24-megapixel under-display camera.

The Megapixel Mirage: Is Bigger Really Better?

Under-display cameras, to date, have been a mixed bag. Samsung and ZTE have dabbled, but the results, let's be frank, have been underwhelming. The core issue is light transmittance. Hiding a camera behind a screen inherently reduces the amount of light reaching the sensor, leading to washed-out, blurry images.

Apple's rumored 24MP sensor, with its six plastic lens elements, is a significant jump from the 4MP and 8MP sensors found in competing devices. Does this mean Apple has cracked the code? Possibly. But megapixels aren't everything. A larger sensor can capture more light, but the quality of the lens, the image processing software, and a host of other factors play a critical role. It's like horsepower in a car; it's meaningless without a good engine and transmission to back it up.

The report suggests Apple has achieved a "breakthrough in improving light transmittance and image quality." That's a bold claim. I've looked at hundreds of these reports, and that level of certainty is unusual pre-release. What specific techniques are they using? New materials? Advanced algorithms? The report doesn't say.

And here's where the numbers get interesting. Ming-Chi Kuo, the respected analyst, predicts dual 48-megapixel rear lenses. Digital Chat Station reinforces this, adding that Apple is prioritizing consistency across folded and unfolded photography. So, while the rear cameras get the megapixel bump, the under-display camera gets a smaller, albeit potentially groundbreaking, 24MP sensor. Apple's first foldable iPhone may pack a 24MP under-screen camera, here is everything we know about it so far

Why the discrepancy? Is Apple betting that its "breakthrough" can compensate for the lower megapixel count? Or is there a more fundamental limitation to under-display technology that even Apple can't overcome?

Sacrifices on the Altar of Slimness?

The JP Morgan report also notes that Apple might ditch LiDAR scanning and optical image stabilization (OIS) to keep the foldable "slim and manageable." This is a curious trade-off. LiDAR adds depth-sensing capabilities, enhancing AR applications and improving autofocus in low light (crucial for a camera already struggling with light). OIS compensates for shaky hands, particularly important for video recording.

Are these features truly incompatible with a foldable design? Or is Apple prioritizing aesthetics over functionality? The market will decide if that was the correct gamble.

And what about biometrics? Instead of Face ID, Apple is reportedly reverting to a Touch ID sensor built into the side button. This, again, could be a space-saving measure. Face ID requires a complex array of sensors, which might be difficult to integrate into a foldable form factor. But it also represents a step backward in user experience.

The Waiting Game: 2026 or 2027?

The launch date remains shrouded in uncertainty. Mark Gurman is targeting Fall 2026. Mizuho Securities believes it could be pushed back to 2027, citing ongoing debates around hinge design and durability.

Apple's history suggests they prefer to be late and perfect rather than early and buggy. The original iPhone wasn't the first smartphone, but it redefined the category. Similarly, the Apple Watch wasn't the first smartwatch, but it quickly became the dominant player. (The acquisition cost was substantial (reported at $2.1 billion).)

A delay wouldn't be surprising, given the complexities of foldable technology. Hinges are notoriously difficult to engineer, and display durability is a major concern. A foldable iPhone that breaks after a few months of use would be a PR disaster.

I've been tracking Apple's supply chain data for years. The absence of concrete component orders for foldable-specific parts suggests a 2027 launch is more likely than 2026. But that's just my interpretation.

A $2,500 Prototype?

Ultimately, the foldable iPhone is a high-stakes gamble. The rumored price point—likely north of $2,500—places it firmly in the "luxury" category. At that price, consumers will expect not just innovation, but flawless execution.

Will Apple deliver a revolutionary camera experience that justifies the price tag? Or will the foldable iPhone be a costly experiment, a showcase of technology that doesn't quite live up to the hype? The answer, like the future of Apple's stock, remains to be seen.

Speculation or Sound Strategy?